The Security of the Black-Azov Sea Region

Threats from the sea are extremely foreseeable for Ukraine, and the capabilities of Ukraine’s defence forces at sea do not correspond to the level of threat there. The vast majority of the Ukrainian maritime zone is occupied. This issue is attracting increased attention from the government and society, but a clear plan to minimize the threats emanating from the sea has not yet been developed. 

For several months, the Centre has worked with a number of outstanding maritime security experts to develop a fundamental study that includes a security assessment of the region and suggests a list of specific actions to be taken to respond to identified threats.

The report provides a detailed analysis of the region’s security developments in a strategic context. The situation poses a long-standing threat that stretches beyond the region.

We propose a scenario generation system
as a tool for forecasting further aggressive actions by the Russian Federation and we offer key ideas that can be put into a counter-strategy.

Besides Ukraine’s response, which must be innovative and asymmetric, the counter-strategy also envisions greater interaction and coordination with other regional and external players in a joint global effort

The Authors

Alexander Khara

Diplomat, foreign affairs and security policy expert, Assistant Minister of Defence of Ukraine (2020), fomer expert of the «Maidan of Foreign Affairs» think tank, official of the Office of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine, the Embassy of Ukraine in Canada and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine

Andrii Ryzhenko

First rank Captain (ret), Ukrainian Naval Forces Former Officer of NATO Strategic Operations Command J7 Training Directorate, Deputy Chief of Staff for Euro-Atlantic Integration of the Ukrainian Naval Forces, Assistant Minister of Defence of Ukraine (2020)

Alina Frolova

Deputy Chairman, Deputy Minister of Defence of Ukraine (2019–2020), Adviser to the Ministry of Defence (2015–2016), Adviser to the Ministry of Information Policy (2016–2018), founder of the «Invictus Games Team Ukraine Project», Stratcom.UA and UCMC.

Ihor Kabanenko

Admiral (ret), Ukrainian Naval Forces
Former First Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Military Representative of the Mission of Ukraine to NATO, Deputy Minister of Defence of Ukraine (2014)

Andrii Klymenko

Crimean expert and journalist. Honored Economist of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, co-founder and editor-in-chief of the Black Sea News portal. Head of the Monitoring Group of the Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies

AllEscort